April Fool's Day 2027

This scenario is based upon the wargame results published by Centre for Strategic and International Studies in 2023, concerning an invasion of the island of Taiwan by the People's Republic of China. The CSIS study is here, accessed 25 November 2024: https://www.csis.org/analysis/first-battle-next-war-wargaming-chinese-invasion-taiwan Specifically, this scenario is a CMO simulation of the CSIS 'base case' wargame, during the first iteration of 3. 5 days (84 hours). The base case has the following parameters: PRC has decided to invade Taiwan on D-day 1 April 2027. Taiwan will strongly resist the invasion. USA automatically enters the war to support Taiwan. No US forces will be pre-deployed to the island of Taiwan. Japan grants basing rights to USA in fighting the battle. Japan will commence offensive combat operations against China if attacked. Phillipines will remain neutral. Australia will support Taiwan, Japan and the USA, but not deploy forces to directly fight in the theatre of operations. There will be no simultaneous opportunistc military aggressions by other nations such as Russia, Iran or North Korea. Orders of battle are derived from ISIS Military Balance 2024, plus the widely reported delivery of Harpoon coastal missile batteries to Taiwan. PRC mobilized for battle at D - 30. USA mobilized for battle at D - 14. Taiwan fights against enemy incursions immediately, without delay. Chinese forces are authorized to strike against USA and Japanese territory. USA forces are authorized to strike against mainalnd China. However, a key conclusion of the CSIS wargame is that striking mainland China is not worthwhile. Therefore, the computer-controlled USA side will not attack mainland China. PLA amphibious, Taiwan ground, and PLAAF forces all have high levels of competence in military operations. Software updates enable JASSM to have an anti-ship capability similar to LRASM, functionally increasing the arsenal of LRASM missiles USA has available. Anti-ship missile defen