Russia's Transnistria Gambit

This scenario is a “what if” focused on 1.) the concept of a resurgent Russian force which aims to take Odessa and 2.) the challenges Russian suppression/destruction of enemy air defenses (SEAD) capability might face if they wanted to ensure the safe landing of Russian airborne (VDV) forces in Transnistria. Ukraine, New Year's Eve (NYE) 2022 After several months of defensive fighting, and receiving additional recruits from prisons and mobilization, Russia manages to go on the offensive from Kherson. In this scenario, Western countries have slowed their transfers of weapons to an exhausted Ukrainian army (but not until after they transferred a number of high end systems). Russian forces have made a breakthrough and look likely to threaten Odessa in the coming days or weeks. Russia needs Odessa to successfully supply the total conquest of Ukraine’s coastline. With ground forces making their way to Odessa from the East, Russia wants to complicate Ukraine’s defenses. To do so, they intend to open a surprise second front towards Odessa from Transnistria. To maintain the element of surprise, this must be done quickly. Luckily, Russia has been slowly restoring the airbase at Tiraspol over the past couple of weeks as a reception area for its airborne troops (VDV). The Russians plan to move VDV units to Tiraspol and then quickly go on the offensive in Western Ukraine, with follow-on forces to join as able.