A Black Sea Hammer, Chapter 3 - Defensive Counter-Air

The Russia-Ukraine war rages into its 8th month, with no clear signs of either side breaking. Russian forces hold Donbas, Donetsk, Mariupol, Melitopol. Ukrainian forces hold Odessa, Kyiv, and most of western and central Ukraine. Seven days ago, the Ukrainian Army launched a counterattack on Russian forces holding Kherson, and are pushing Russian forces back to the east of the Dnipro River. NATO arms and intelligence continues to flow to Ukraine through border crossings in Poland, and now critical to the Kherson offensive, via Romania. The Russian government has increased its signaling, via both overt and covert means, that continued NATO arms and intelligence support to Ukraine is unacceptable, and as the situation in Kherson deteriorates, the chance of Russia directly striking NATO supply routes becomes increasingly possible. Recent attacks on NATO members, including a UAV attack on a Romanian air base, and a yet-to-be attributed naval mine attack on several NATO member ports, are being investigated – but signs point to Moscow’s involvement. If proven, this could lead to an Article 5 response. You are the commander of NATO Battle Group South, tasked to defend NATO interests in this increasingly hostile environment.