Sandbox Scenario #2: East Med A2/AD

Sides Blue (NATO) Red (Russia/Syria) and Green (Syrian Rebels) This scenario can only be played as Blue. General Situation On 13 January, 2016, a Turkish F-16 is shot down by Russian fighters after it crossed into Syrian airspace northwest of Idlib. Russia offers no apology and warns Turkey not to allow its fighters to stray into airspace where Russian military forces are conducting operations. In response, the Turks denounce the Russian action and warn against further Russian aggression. Heeding the advice of NATO military commanders, however, Turkey has been allowing Russian aircraft operating against rebel positions in close proximity to the border some wiggle room. Despite the hostile ‘attack’ against its F-16, Turkey allows the small buffer zone to remain in place. However, Adana has announced that it will regard any aircraft that menaces its airspace as hostile and they will be fired upon and brought down. For one week afterward, tensions have simmered, but Russian air activity over Syria has been nonexistent. Then on 19 January, 2016 Russia announces that airstrikes against rebel positions near the Turkish border will resume within 24 hours. The announcement increases the level of tension in the region as the possibility of a confrontation with Turkey increases. NATO has released a statement warning if Russia disregards the sovereignty of Turkish airspace and/or launches an attack on Turkish forces, Article 5 will be invoked immediately. NATO will stand beside its Turkish ally. Conflict Situation Location: Eastern Mediterranean The purpose of this scenario will be to examine an air/sea clash between Blue and Red, focusing on Red’s Anti-access/Area Deniability (A2/AD) assets. The scenario will give the player a good idea of Red’s A2/AD advantages and limitations in a near future conflict in the Eastern Med. It also provides the player with the ability to explore Blue’s own capabilities and tactics with regards to neutralizing the A2/AD threat to the airbases a